Pet Food 2036: Growth and Disruption in Cat and Dog Food

Premium in pet food is shifting from price to proof. This is especially true for pet food brands as they adapt to evolving consumer expectations. The next decade will be defined by innovation in ingredients, sustainability that becomes non-optional, digital engagement that moves beyond advertising, and regulatory scrutiny that raises the bar on claims and quality. Investors and corporates will need to look beyond volume growth to capture value from structural shifts.

By 2036, the market will not be won by brands that charge the most. It will be won by players that can prove claims, secure demand, and retain customers at scale, with the best-in-class using an omnichannel approach.

Executive Summary

The last few years have changed how growth is delivered and how value is captured, with value growth in many markets being driven more by price and mix than by volume. After sharp inflation from 2021 to 2023, UK pet food price growth is easing, with cost per kilo expected to rise at under 2 percent per year through 2030, meaning value creation will increasingly depend on proof, retention, and portfolio mix rather than price alone.

The market still looks like a branded staple story from a distance, with dry food anchoring the largest pool in dog food, wet food remaining central in cat food, and treats combining high purchase frequency with owner willingness to pay more for perceived benefits. This makes treats where the margins sit for many players and a natural arena for functional claims to scale.

The next wave will be shaped by four forces; ingredient credibility, sustainability compliance, digital retention mechanics, and tighter regulation of claims and quality systems that will shift profit pools across the value chain. Brands will still matter, but they will be judged less on storytelling and more on evidence, reliability, and repeat.

Where Is Pet Food Today: An Overview for Cat and Dog Food Brands

Recent performance has been shaped by inflation, pricing actions, and mix shift, with many brands having revenues lifted by higher price points and migration into premium tiers rather than increases in consumption. This matters because price-led growth strengthens the retailer case for private label, makes promotions more effective at driving switching, and raises the burden of proof for what owners are actually paying for.

The market is more bifurcated than headline numbers suggest (Figure 1), with premium propositions such as hypoallergenic formulas, sensitive stomach diets, and senior nutrition still able to grow while mainstream and mid-tier ranges increasingly need a defensible position on price per day, availability, and trust. The category has a clear structural backbone; dry dog food remains the scale engine while wet food remains a key pillar, particularly in cat food where palatability and moisture are central to how owners tend to evaluate quality. Fresh and frozen formats remain smaller by share but are growing in influence because they carry higher price points and support stronger differentiation.

The prices tell a more specific story, with treats typically carrying an attractive £/kilo price (Figure 2) and playing a disproportionate role in innovation because owners are more willing to trial a new benefit in treats than to switch a complete diet. For cat and dog food brands, this makes treats an important lever for both margin mix and proposition testing, which is why so much innovation is concentrated there.

Consumer behaviour reinforces this dynamic, with search demand showing that pet owners shop by mission; queries such as “best dog food brands for allergies” and “best dog food brands for sensitive stomach” reflect a move toward benefit-led choice that shapes how consumers discover products, compare options, and switch.

There is also a meaningful behavioural difference between cats and dogs that warrants attention: cats are more sensitive to palatability, which can drive higher churn if a product is not accepted, whereas dogs tend to be more accepting across dog food brands, which supports higher lifetime value and more stable repeat behaviour. This distinction matters for portfolio strategy and how brands underwrite retention.

What Are the Pet Food Channel Dynamics: Where Purchases Happen

Channel dynamics are now as important as product dynamics, with supermarkets and mass retail remaining essential for scale but pet specialists having strengthened their authority in premium segments and online having increased its role in repeat purchasing. Direct-to-consumer can be powerful, but the long-term winners will be those who combine acquisition and retention without relying on discount-led switching.

In the UK, pet food remains largely offline and grocery-led, with around 62 percent of dog food and 64 percent of cat food sales purchased via offline retail while ecommerce accounts for roughly a third and is expected to rise into the low to mid-40s percent range by the 2036. (Figure 3)

Channel shapes pricing architecture in distinct ways: grocery drives reach but intensifies price transparency and private label pressure, specialists can support premium propositions but require clear differentiation, and online amplifies both retention opportunity and switching risk because consumers can compare alternatives instantly. The vet channel warrants attention despite remaining small in absolute value, as vets shape perceptions through endorsement, therapeutic diets, and trust signals that influence owner behaviour.

Where Is the Money in Pet Food: Market Concentration and Where Value Accrues

The market remains dominated by global scale players, but smaller brands can win when they own a clear proposition and find a channel route that does not require mass budgets, which has been particularly true in fresh, functional, raw, and clean label segments. (Figure 4)

Private label has become more capable and strategic, no longer only a value play but in many retailers extending upward by borrowing premium cues and functional language while competing on price per day. This is why mid-tier branded players face the greatest squeeze, with the middle being where switching is easiest and retailers have the strongest incentive to intervene.

Value is distributed across ingredient platforms, formulation know-how, manufacturing capability, quality systems, and channel control, with retailers capturing value through shelf access and private label, ingredient suppliers through differentiated inputs, manufacturers when capacity is constrained or technical complexity makes switching costly, and brand owners when they sustain price architecture, build trust, and keep customers coming back.

The recent period has shifted profit pools in three ways: commodity volatility has increased the premium on procurement and formulation flexibility (Figure 5), retailer power has increased as consumers have become more price-aware, and safety and claims scrutiny have increased the value of quality systems and operational discipline. When trust is fragile, the ability to avoid quality failures becomes commercial advantage rather than just risk management.

The treats dynamic deserves particular emphasis here, as they are where brands can most quickly monetise functional positioning; they benefit from higher frequency and lower ticket trial, though the margin opportunity is not uniform. In cat treats, high margin per kilo can be offset by palatability risk, churn, and lower volumes, whereas in dog treats, acceptance tends to be higher, which supports a more predictable repeat profile for dog food brands.

Looking forward, profit pools may shift toward the parts of the chain that control hard constraints such as evidence for claims and compliance capabilities required to sell at scale, meaning the most durable economics may sit in platforms that enable defensible claims, compliant manufacturing, and high-retention customer relationships.

How Pet Food Changes by 2036: Value over Volume

The next phase is a mix story rather than a volume story, with UK pet food volumes expected to be broadly flat through 2030 (Figure 6) but premium continuing to take share while economy declines (Figure 7), meaning value growth increasingly comes from trading up rather than more tonnes.

As cost per kilo normalizes after the 2021 to 2023 inflation spike, price becomes a weaker tailwind and premium becomes a proof requirement. Brands will need to win on evidence, quality, and repeat purchase, especially in cat food where palatability can drive fast churn.

On formulation, claims are moving from broad to specific and outcome-led, including gut, mobility, weight, allergy, and senior propositions, while protein diversification will accelerate though palatability, digestibility, supply reliability, and regulatory acceptance remain binding constraints.

At the same time, sustainability and regulation are moving from marketing to compliance, raising the value of traceability, packaging readiness, and robust quality systems, while digital is shifting from advertising to retention, with subscriptions and feeding plans turning trial into repeat and giving visibility on churn.

Where Will Value Accrue: An Outlook for the Pet Food Value Chain

By 2036, value will accrue to five capabilities: ingredient and formulation platforms will matter more where they support functional outcomes and can be defended, manufacturing capability will matter more as complexity rises and compliance becomes costlier, brand trust will matter but will be increasingly tied to evidence and performance, channel influence will matter because it shapes pricing architecture, and data and retention will matter because they govern lifetime value and reduce dependence on continual acquisition.

The leading platforms will do three things at once; they will maintain trust through consistent quality and defensible claims, operate with supply reliability and manufacturing resilience, and innovate quickly without breaking compliance, while also retaining customers whether through channel relationships, subscription mechanics, or product ecosystems that make switching feel risky.

The asset implications follow naturally: premium manufacturing platforms matter where complexity creates switching costs, functional ingredient platforms matter where proprietary processing or evidence-backed benefits can be scaled across brands, vet-adjacent propositions matter because they anchor trust, and subscription infrastructure matters because it converts one-time trial into predictable repeat.

Conclusion

Pet food will still be an attractive market in 2036, but it will look less like a straightforward branded growth story and more like a contest of capabilities, with the winners being those that align proposition with proof, build operational resilience, and hold customers through retention mechanics that reduce switching. Sustainability and regulation will raise the minimum bar, and digital will increasingly determine who owns repeat purchase rather than who wins attention.

Premium is shifting from price to proof. If you want to understand where pet food profit pools are moving and which capabilities will separate winners from the rest, Mansfield Advisors can help. We support investors and management teams with target screening, commercial diligence and value creation plans across pet food and adjacent supply-chain platforms. Get in touch to discuss what this means for your portfolio or acquisition pipeline.

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